North America's weather, and its effect on what remains in U.S. soybean and Canadian canola fields, are among the most important factors in future pricing opportunities for canola, analysts say.

In a 2010 outlook published in the Nov. 9 issue of Grainews, Edmonton marketing consultant Shelley Wetmore says the trade is intently watching what remains of the Canadian canola harvest. Statistics Canada's October report, she noted, has estimated a 19 per cent drop in Canadian canola production.

Provincial ag officials in Alberta last week estimated about 15 per cent of the canola crop in the central region and under 10 per cent of the Peace region's crop remained to be harvested. Saskatchewan last week reported about 31 per cent of its canola crop remained to be combined.

However, Wetmore also quoted Norm Czibere, grain manager with Bunge Canada, as saying the biggest fundamental important to canola is the U.S. soybean crop.

"If the U.S. does get the soybean crop off, it will be the largest ever," he told Wetmore in Grainews. "If not, we could see some strength in our own canola prices."

And it's still a "very mixed picture in the U.S., with some areas resuming harvest while other areas are too wet to start," according to Alberta grain market analyst Brian Wittal of Pro Com Marketing.

"No one has a clear picture as to the extent of damage or production loss that can be expected from the weather of the past month, so most of the trade remained on the sidelines, opting to wait and see what happens as the week progresses," he wrote in his market commentary Nov. 3 at AGCanada.com.

Furthermore, Wittal noted Nov. 2, with China still not budging on its Nov. 15 deadline to require phytosanitary certificates for Canadian canola, "if this issue drags on, we will see further pressure on canola futures eventually."

Basis levels, Czibere said in Grainews, had been unusually narrow at that point for fall deliveries.

"My gut feels basis will widen, but if China and India decide to buy, basis could remain historically narrow," he said.

"Finally, remember Canada is an exporting country," Wetmore wrote in Grainews. "So, typically, a higher Canadian dollar does not bode well for most commodities we export."

Bunge's Czibere also told Wetmore he has seen samples of heated canola come to the company's canola crushing facility at Fort Saskatchewan, Alta., due to warm weather in September and the variety of crop stages in some fields.

"A good safeguard would be to turn your canola, or at least check it often," he said. "Heated canola equals a wide basis. Check your bins."

"I have talked to producers who were checking their canola bins and found the canola starting to set up in the bin, to the point that it wouldn't run into the auger," Wittal wrote Oct. 30. "They caught it just in time, as it had not heated yet, but it was too close for comfort."