ICE Canada Review: Canola Down With Spec Selling

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
Nov. 23, 2012
Winnipeg – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were  lower at Friday’s close, as bearish technical signals and the strong  Canadian dollar weighed on values.
The losses in canola came despite the firmer tone in the CBOT  soy complex, as solid export demand and production uncertainty in  South America helped underpin the US futures.
A lack of significant farmer selling and the pricing of old  export business to Japan was also supportive for canola, according  to traders.
However, canola lagged soybeans to the upside for most of the  day and the Canadian futures turned lower heading into the close.
The Canadian dollar was up by about half a cent relative to its  US counterpart on Friday, which cuts into crush margins and makes  exports less attractive. Ideas that canola is overpriced compared to  other oilseeds also put downward pressure on values, said traders.
Canola also ran into upside resistance from a technical  perspective. The January contract made an attempt to break above  upside resistance at C$580 per tonne. However, when values failed to  hold above that level the resulting speculative selling built on  itself, said participants.
About 13,692 canola contracts were traded on Friday, which  compares with Thursday when 5,612 contracts changed hands. Spreading  was a feature, accounting for about 9,926 of the contracts traded. Milling wheat and barley futures were untraded and unchanged.  Durum was steady to lower in thin commercial activity.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.Price      Change

Canola            Jan     575.90    dn 2.50

Mar     574.00    dn 2.20

May     573.50    dn 1.70

Milling Wheat     Dec     297.30    unch

Mar     305.30    unch

Durum             Dec     312.00    unch

Mar     316.00    dn 1.00

Barley            Dec     250.00    unch

Mar     253.00    unch

Commodity futures

Futures Prices as of April 17, 2014

Canola Price Change
Milling Wheat Price Change
Durum Price Change
New Barley Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton


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