ICE Canada Review: Canola Looking Overpriced, Edges Down

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
Nov. 20, 2012
Winnipeg – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts  closed lower on Tuesday, retreating from earlier gains as speculative  selling and a lack of fresh end user demand weighed on values.
Activity was two-sided and choppy, with positioning ahead of the  US Thanksgiving holiday behind much of the speculative trade. The  losses in canola came despite the firmer tone in CBOT soybeans.
Continued concerns about tight Canadian canola supplies and the  need to ration demand going forward were also supportive, according  to participants.
However, the smaller canola crop is largely priced into the  market already. As a result, ideas that canola is looking overpriced  compared to other oilseeds caused the market to lag soybeans the  upside and eventually turn lower.
Beneficial weather for the development of the soybean crop in  South America weighed on values as well, said traders.
General firmness in the value of the Canadian dollar, as it  remained above parity with its US counterpart, was another bearish  price influence.
About 10,470 canola contracts were traded on Tuesday, which  compares with Monday when 14,682 contracts changed hands. Spreading  accounted for about 5,052 of the contracts traded.
Durum saw some light activity, edging lower in two-sided  commercial activity. Milling wheat and barley were untraded and  unchanged.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.Price      Change

Canola            Jan     579.60    dn 0.40

Mar     577.10    dn 0.30

May     575.60    dn 0.60

Milling Wheat     Dec     300.20    unch

Mar     309.70    unch

Durum             Dec     311.80    dn 0.10

Mar     318.40    dn 0.10

Barley            Dec     250.00    unch

Mar     253.00    unch

Commodity futures

Futures Prices as of April 24, 2014

Canola Price Change
January579.600.40
March577.100.30
May575.600.60
Milling Wheat Price Change
December300.20
March309.70
Durum Price Change
December311.800.10
March318.400.10
New Barley Price Change
December250.00
March253.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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