ICE Canola Up With Tight Supply Concerns

By Terryn Shiells, Commodity News Service Canada
October 5, 2012
WINNIPEG – Canola contracts on the ICE  Futures Canada platform were stronger at 8:31 CDT Friday, as a  lower than expected production estimate from Statistics Canada  Thursday continued to support prices, analysts said.
StatsCan estimated canola production for 2012/13 (Aug/Jul)  at 13.4 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from their estimate  in August. The number was also lower than pre-report estimates,  and the 2011 production number of 14.5 million tonnes.
The need to ration demand because of the tight Canadian canola  supply also generated some of the upward price action, traders  said.
Strength in the CBOT soybean complex also helped canola move  to the upside. Much of the buying that took soybeans up was linked  to strong export demand.
Advances seen in outside oilseed markets, including European  rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, also added to the bullish price  sentiment.
However, the upswing in the value of the Canadian dollar  limited the advances. The stronger Canadian currency makes canola  more expensive for foreign buyers.
Activity was on the light side Friday morning. As of 8:31 CDT,  only about 780 canola contracts had traded.
Milling wheat, barley and durum were untraded and unchanged.
Prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton at 8:31  CDT:
Price Change
Canola
Nov      611.20 up  4.70                  Jan     610.70   up  6.20                  Mar     606.00   up  5.30 Milling Wheat Oct     293.30     unch                  Dec     298.50     unch Durum Oct     309.00     unch                  Dec     313.50     unch  Barley Oct     245.00     unch                  Dec     250.00     unch

Commodity futures

Futures Prices as of June 18, 2013

Canola Price Change
Nov611.204.70
Jan610.706.20
Mar606.005.30
Milling Wheat Price Change
Oct293.30
Dec298.50
Durum Price Change
Oct309.00
Dec313.50
New Barley Price Change
Oct245.00
Dec250.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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