Above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season: NOAA
A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Image credit: NOAA)
NOAA – Above-normal hurricane activity is predicted in the Atlantic basin this year, according to forecasters with the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) at the Climate Prediction Center. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts an 85 per cent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 per cent chance of a near-normal season and a five per cent chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 63 kilometres per hour or higher). Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 119 km/h or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 179 km/h or higher). Forecasters have a 70 per cent confidence in these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
Light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming oceans globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane, according to the NOAA.
