Flood adaptation cuts economic, human losses: study

Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research – Humans adapting to floods through measures such as early warning systems, emergency preparedness and others have resulted in the prevention of countless deaths and economic loss.

A study from the Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany showed that such adaptation, other than structural flood defences, has reduced economic losses from flooding by 63 per cent and fatalities by 52 per cent since 1950. The study analyzed seven decades of historical flood impacts across Europe and demonstrated how adaptation measures have reduced damage over time.

“Flood protection and other adaptation measures have largely offset the increasing flood risk from expansion into flood plains and climate change across the continent since 1950,” explained Dominik Paprotny, a PIK researcher and the lead author of the attribution study.

“Vulnerability has been significantly reduced, but progress in adaptation has been slower in the past 20 years, indicating the need for additional efforts to prevent an increase in flood losses from climate change in the future.”

The study found economic losses in Europe due to flooding and the number of people affected have increased by around eight per cent since 1950 due to climate change. The research team examined 1,729 floods that occurred across Europe between 1950 and 2020, comparing them in scenarios with and without climate and socioeconomic changes since 1950.

Using historical damage data from these events, the researchers were able to also deduce changes in the level of protection provided by measures such as dikes, dams, early warning systems and changed building regulations at the European level over time. Their results show that increased exposure has dominated the increase in damages. However, improved protective measures and reduced vulnerability have partially offset this trend.

The study identified the factors behind long-term trends in flood damage in Europe, revealing clear regional differences: Flood protection levels have improved more in western and southern Europe than in eastern and northern parts of the continent. Moreover, the study shows, that vulnerability has declined across the continent – with few exceptions, particularly for the population affected in parts of eastern Europe.

Absolute economic losses have almost doubled from 37 billion euros between 1950 and 1960 to 71 billion euros over the past decade. However, relative to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the study area, the economic impact has decreased significantly in percentage terms, now amounting to around one-third of that in the 1950s. This is because economic growth since the 1950s has outpaced the increase in damages.

“We can reduce damage through adaptation, but adaptation has its limits,” said Katja Frieler, co-author of the study. “As warming increases, we are getting closer to those limits.”

In the past four years, multiple particularly severe floods have occurred, such as the Ahrtal flood in Germany in 2021.

“It is important to continuously monitor progress in adaptation and the impacts of climate change, and to swiftly cut global greenhouse gas emissions to keep climate change impacts within manageable limits,” Frieler concluded.