ENSO neutral conditions likely at this time: WMO

World Meteorological Organization – El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are a little bit more likely than an El Niño this summer, the World Meteorological Organization said on March 3.

El Niño refers to the periodic large-scale warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It usually has the opposite effects of La Niña on weather and rainfall patterns.

The WMO has forecasted a 60 per cent chance of ENSO neutral conditions, that being neither an El Niño or La Niña, during March to May 2026. Also, the WMO said there’s a 30 per cent chance of La Niña and a 10 per cent chance of an El Niño.

During April to June, there is a 70 per cent chance of ENSO neutral conditions with a 30 per cent chance of El Niño. From May to July, the chance of neutral conditions is 60 per cent, while the chance of El Niño is about 40 per cent.

However, the WMO warned that predictions at this time of year are usually less reliable due to the boreal spring predictability barrier that negatively affects the accuracy of long-term forecasts.

“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

From March to May, above-average land surface temperatures are expected for most of the world. Rainfall forecasts in the equatorial Pacific Ocean show lingering La Niña conditions, but signals are more mixed in other parts of the world.