Prairie forecast: Arctic air keeps spring warming at bay

Forecast issued March 25, covering March 25 to April 1, 2026

Highlights:

• Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward into the Prairies later this week and into the weekend, keeping temperatures below average.
• Central and northern Alberta can expect snow on Wednesday while the south sees a chance of flurries or scattered showers. Temperatures will fall below average.
• A low pressure system is expected to produce a swath of 5 to 10 cm of snow across the central Prairies on Wednesday.
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  Saskatchewan and Manitoba temperatures will trend below average toward the end of the week. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 5°C across extreme southern areas, while central regions will see highs closer to -5°C.

Overview

Despite the high level of uncertainty we typically see in spring, last week’s forecast played out surprisingly close to expectations. With a record breaking heat wave over much of the U.S., you might expect some of that warmth to push northward. However, a persistent ridge of Arctic high pressure over the northern Prairies has effectively kept that heat locked to our south.

We begin this forecast period with an area of low pressure tracking across the northern U.S. and an associated frontal boundary draped across the south-central Prairies. This is the same system that weather models indicated would impact the region in last week’s forecast.

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Behind it, Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward into the Prairies later this week and into the weekend, keeping temperatures below average.

There are some indications of weak ridging building over the western Prairies late in the weekend, but model guidance has been inconsistent with this feature. At times models strengthen the ridge. At other times they keep it relatively weak. At this point, the consensus suggests the ridge will remain modest, allowing another area of low pressure to move through the region. This will bring an additional chance of snow, particularly across southern areas.

As is often the case this time of year, any passing low is likely to be followed by another push of Arctic high pressure. That means true spring warmth may still be a week or two away.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with an area of low pressure pushing eastward out of the Pacific. This system is expected to bring snow to much of central and northern Alberta on Wednesday, with general amounts in the 2 to 5 cm range. Across southern regions, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of flurries or scattered rain showers.

Once this system moves through, weak Arctic high pressure will settle into the region, bringing a return to below average temperatures. Daytime highs across central and northern areas are expected to fall to around -8°C, while southern regions cool to near -2°C.

Temperatures should begin to rebound over the weekend, particularly across southern Alberta, as a weak upper ridge develops. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs climbing into the 8 to 10°C range in the south and 3°C to 5°C across central regions.

Looking ahead to March 30 and 31, weather models indicate the potential for an area of low pressure over Wyoming that would then track eastward. If this system materializes, it could draw moisture northward and result in widespread snowfall across much of central and southern Alberta. Snowfall amounts remain uncertain at this time, and as is typical at this range, the details could change significantly.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This forecast period begins with a frontal wave tied to an area of low pressure tracking across the northern U.S. That’s the same system referenced in last week’s forecast. As expected, its exact track and strength have shifted somewhat.

This system is expected to produce a swath of 5 to 10 cm of snow across the central Prairies, with totals tapering off significantly both north and south of this band. The system should exit the eastern Prairies by Thursday, followed by the southward advance of Arctic high pressure. This will bring a return to sunny skies and relatively light winds on Friday and through the weekend.

With Arctic high pressure in place, temperatures will trend below average. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 5°C across extreme southern areas, while central regions will see highs closer to -5°C.

Early next week, weather models are suggesting a pattern similar to the previous week, with another area of low pressure potentially developing over Wyoming and tracking eastward across the northern United States. While confidence in the development of this system is relatively high, its exact track and intensity remains uncertain. As with last week’s system, it will need to be monitored closely, as it may evolve into a more significant spring storm.