North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Winter-like weather pushes up bids

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Oct. 8 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were stronger Tuesday, as canola continued to demonstrated some independent strength.

Along with gains in the Chicago soy complex, canola bids received support from the Prairie weather forecast. Today Alberta and Saskatchewan were hit with below zero Celsius temperatures along with light snow. The system will move eastward into Manitoba by Thursday.

Prior to this change in weather, the Prairie canola harvest was about 37 per cent complete. Manitoba was further ahead significantly than Alberta and Saskatchewan. Updated crop reports for each of three will be issued during the rest of this week.

The Canadian dollar was lower at mid-afternoon Tuesday at 75.05 U.S. cents, down a tenth of cent from yesterday.

There were 30,964 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 24,637 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,448 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 464.80 up 2.20
Jan 473.30 up 2.10
Mar 481.80 up 1.90
May 488.60 up 1.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Tuesday, with the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) weekly crop progress report showing little change from the previous report.

Issued on Monday, the weekly crop progress report said 72 per cent of soybeans were dropping leaves. That’s up from the previous week’s 55 per cent, but 15 points behind the five-year average. The soybean harvest doubled to 14 per cent complete, but that’s 20 points off the pace. Soybean conditions were down two points to 53 per cent good to excellent.

Winter-like weather also pushed up prices. The Northern Plains are expected to received snow or rain with temperatures around the freezing point.
The USDA will issue its next World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Thursday. Market expectations project a 0.6 bushel per acre (BPA) drop in yields to 47.3 BPA. Any frost damage this week will show up in the November report.

CORN futures were higher on Tuesday, following the lead set by soybeans.

The USDA’s crop progress report said there was a five-point gain in dented corn to 93 per cent, which was six points behind the five-year average. Mature corn reached 58 per cent for a gain of 15 from the previous week. However, it’s still 27 points off of the pace. Harvested corn rose from 11 to 15 per cent complete, but that’s 12 points behind the pace. Corn rated as 56 per cent good to excellent, for a slip of one point.

The markets predicted a 0.7 BPA drop in corn yields to 167.5 BPA and acres to be harvested are expected to fall by 500,000 acres. Projections are for production to be 13.88 billion bushels, on a 211.0 million bushel reduction.

ProAgro upped its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports by almost nine per cent to approximately 1.24 billion bushels.

FranceAgriMer lowered its projection for France’s corn crop by 2.3 per cent to about 492.10 million bushels.

WHEAT futures were higher on Tuesday, getting support from the crop progress report and the weather forecast.

The USDA reported a one-point gain in the spring wheat harvest, which reached 91 per cent complete. The five-year average was 99 per cent done.

Also, the USDA reported the planting of winter wheat hit 52 per cent finished, for a gain of 13 points over last week. The progress is on par with the average of 53 per cent. Emerged Winter wheat climbed 15 points to 26 per cent, which is on par with the five-average.

ProAgro slightly raised its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat exports to 709.0 million bushels.

Russia’s wheat exports from January to August amounted to 680.0 million bushels, about a third lower compared to the same months in 2018.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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