North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola begins week with losses

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, August 19 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower on Monday, caught up in a slide in the Chicago soy complex.

Also, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil lost ground, which further weighed on canola.

After parts of the Prairies received rain over the weekend, the MarketsFarm forecast has called for warm temperatures this week. Cooler temperatures are to follow along with the chance of frost. A weather premium has remained on bids as frost becomes more likely.

The lighter volumes today suggested farmers were increasingly busy with the cereal harvest and the start of the canola harvest, according to a trader.
As the Pro Farmer Crop Tour got underway today in the United States Midwest, the trader commented the first day’s findings could push canola prices down directly or through spillover from Chicago.

There were 7,485 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 11,459 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,480 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 450.20 dn 2.20
Jan 457.70 dn 2.30
Mar 464.30 dn 2.20
May 469.80 dn 2.10

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Monday, as buying was limited. Also, the risk premiums were removed as there were fewer concerns about the weather.

Ahead of this afternoon’s weekly crop progress report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), market predictions pegged soybeans to increase one to two per cent from last week’s 54 per cent good to excellent condition. The report will be released at 3 pm CDT.

In the USDA’s export inspections for the week ending August 15; about 1.16 million tonnes of wheat were shipped, for an increase of 22 per cent from the previous week. More than 551,230 tonnes was destined for China.

A heat wave, with daytime temperatures reaching up to the mid-40’s Celsius, is expected over the U.S. Midwest and southern Plains this week.

The White House indicated there will be more trade talks with China over the phone in the coming weeks, with hopes for face-to-face negotiations in Washington. Also, the Trump administration granted technology giant Huawei a 90-day license to continue doing business in the U.S.

CORN futures were weaker on Monday, due rain over the Corn Belt during the weekend and a round of profit-taking.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour began today and continues until Thursday across the Midwest, with groups that started from western and eastern ends of the Corn Belt. Early reports from the tour indicated corn was behind and needs time to mature.

Trade expectations for corn conditions were from unchanged to up one per cent from last week’s rating of 57 per cent good to excellent.

USDA export inspections showed shipments of more than 510,330 tonnes of corn for the week ending August 15. That’s down 30 per cent from the previous week. Mexico was the largest customer at more than 270,150 tonnes.

WHEAT futures were lower on Monday, in sympathy with soybean and corn.

Trade expectations were for wheat conditions to remain unchanged at 64 per cent good to excellent. The U.S. winter wheat was estimated at 94 per cent complete and the spring wheat harvest expected to be 21 per cent complete.

There was approximately 488,980 tonnes of wheat shipped, according to export inspections. That was slightly better than the previous week’s shipments. Mexico was the primary destination at almost 101,000 tonnes.

Morocco has tendered for 576,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 345,450 tonnes of U.S. durum under a preferential tariff quota.

Romania was reportedly barred from selling wheat to Algeria due to the latter’s strict rules on bug damage. This would be good news for France, which has been Algeria’s main source of wheat, but faced increased competition from Romania.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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