North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down, but beans up

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, June 26 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were weaker on Monday, as bearish chart signals weighed on values.

Strength in the Canadian dollar and losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contributed to the softer tone in canola, according to participants.

Relatively favourable North American crop conditions contributed to the declines, although excessive moisture in parts of Western Canada and dryness in others should be keeping some weather premiums in the market, according to participants.

Tight old crop supplies, uncertainty over new crop production, and oversold price sentiment also provided support.

From a chart standpoint, the most active November contract traded right above nearby support, at C$472 per tonne, but managed to settle well off that psychological mark.

About 20,822 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 30,333 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,876 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up two to three cents per bushel on Monday, seeing a recovery off of nearby lows as updated Midwestern weather forecasts provided support.

Expectations for some hotter and drier weather across the soybean growing regions provided the catalyst for a modest short-covering correction in beans to start the week, according to participants.

Slightly better-than-expected weekly soybean export inspections were also supportive. However, large South American supplies are starting to cut into that demand.

Expectations for improvements in the weekly condition ratings, despite the latest forecasts, also tempered the upside.

SOYOIL futures were down on Monday.

SOYMEAL futures settled higher on Monday, following soybeans.

CORN futures in Chicago were up by one to two cents per bushel on Monday.

The shifting Midwestern weather forecasts were also supportive for corn, with the return of hot and dry conditions enough to give values a bit of a boost.

However, crop ratings should still show some improvement on the week, which limited the upside.

Weekly US corn inspections were solid at just under a million tonnes, but still below average trade guesses.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were down by seven to nine cents per bushel on Monday, despite gains in the Minneapolis spring wheat market.

Drought conditions in the Dakotas and Montana are worsening, cutting into the production prospects in the key US spring wheat area.

While Minneapolis spring wheat futures continued their month long climb higher, the Chicago and Kansas City winter wheat contracts failed to follow on Monday as the US winter wheat harvest progresses.

Improving moisture conditions for European wheat crops also weighed on prices.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
updated 2017-06-26 13:19
Price Change
Jul508.30-1.30
Nov474.10-1.10
Jan479.90-1.10
Mar485.50-1.10

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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