North American Grains and Oilseeds Review: Canola down despite higher soy

By Ashley Robinson, Commodity News Service Canada
Winnipeg, Jan. 4 (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures canola contacts finished Friday weaker, as a rallying Canadian dollar dragged the market down. The dollar continued to build on its strength from Thursday, as increases in the price of crude oil is propped it up.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean, oil and meal contracts were all stronger at market close. China has confirmed it is meeting with the United States on Monday to talk trade. This is leading to optimism for the soybean market, however due to the ongoing government shutdown there is still no confirmation of soybean purchases.
The strong soy complex limited losses for canola.
There have already been concerns of waning interest in Canadian canola and the strengthening dollar only makes it less desirably to exporters.
About 11,038 canola contracts traded, which compares with Thursday when 13,577 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 4,224 of the contracts traded.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has decided to delay the release of next week’s reports due to the shutdown. The new release dates will be set after government funding is restored. The January reports are usually known as market movers and set the tone heading into the New Year.
According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) storms have slowed planting of soy crops in Argentina. Rain and hail storms have washed out some fields and have many concerned the 2018/19 crop could be at risk.
CONAB will release its updated production numbers for Brazil corn and beans next week on Friday. There have been concerns about the crops due to dry weather.
CBOT corn prices finished the day in the green.
The U.S. weekly ethanol report is still being released despite the shutdown. Today’s report showed ethanol production fell by 31,000 barrels per day to 1.011 million barrels last week, while stocks rose slightly.
Argentina’s corn crop is estimated to be at 79 per cent seeded, which compares to 73 per cent last week, 70 per cent last year and 75 per cent for the five-year average. The crop was last rated at 57 per cent good to excellent.
Wheat futures in the U.S. also finished the day stronger. There are rumours that China will be purchasing U.S. wheat in the next few days. However, due to the government shutdown there will not be any confirmation of this.
Japan, Egypt, Algeria and Saudi Arabia are all expected to be in the market for wheat next week.
Argentina is 91 per cent done its wheat harvest. BAGE is estimating total production at 19 million tonnes, but there are quality concerns due to rain events.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
updated 2019-01-03 17:00
Price Change
Jan478.400.00
Mar485.40-3.70
May493.70-3.30
Jul500.50-3.50

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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