North American Grains/Oilseed Review – Canola firms after USDA report

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, June 12 (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures Canada canola market finished slightly higher Tuesday, following the release of the USDA’s supply and demand estimates.

The USDA projected lower stockpiles of U.S. corn and soybeans, which was supportive for canola.

Recent weakness in the Canadian dollar helped prop up canola as it made the commodity more attractive on the international market.

There are some ideas the market is slightly oversold.

Losses in vegetable oil were bearish for prices.

The soybean crop in the U.S. is already looking like it will be massive, which undermined values.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Soybean futures finished little changed in technical trade on Tuesday.

The United States Department of Agriculture pegged soybean stockpiles at 385 million bushels in 2018/19, which was much lower than last year’s figure of 505 million bushels.

The agency pegged the 2017 soybean yield at 48.5 bushels an acre, which was down from the average estimate of 48.6 bushels.

Corn futures posted strong gains on Tuesday as the USDA drastically lowered this year’s stockpile number for the United States. The USDA says corn stockpiles in 2018/19 will fall to 1.58 billion bushels, down from last year’s figure of 2.1 billion.

Brazil’s agricultural agency Conab, pegged the country’s corn production at 85 million tonnes, down from the previous estimate of 89.5 million.

Favourable weather conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt weighed on the market.

Chicago wheat futures finished sharply higher on Tuesday, as the USDA lowered its estimate of Russian wheat production by 20 per cent.

According to the USDA, the country’s wheat output in 2018/19 will be 68.5 million tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 85 million.

The USDA expects U.S. wheat exporters to ship out 25 million more bushels this year.

Commodity Future Prices

Canola
updated 2018-06-12 13:19
Price Change
Jul517.000.30
Nov511.000.80
Jan517.500.40
Mar521.400.30

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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