As I mentioned in last weeks weather article, March and April can see some of the biggest snowstorms of the year. While I don't think this one will be one for the record books, there's the potential for some wintery weather across the Prairies between now and the end of the weekend.
Most of Manitoba is at a low to moderate risk of spring flooding this year, according to the latest outlook from the province's Transportation and Infrastructure's Hydrologic Forecast Centre.
In recent days the weather models have leaned towards the mild weather sticking around. The the main medium to long range forecast models are calling for a warmer than average March across the Prairies. Maybe we are seeing an early start to spring.
Feedlot Operators Anticipate Lower Feeder Cattle Supplies in Spring
For the week ending February 22, Western Canadian feeder cattle markets traded steady to $5 higher on average compared to seven days earlier. Positive feeding margins along with improving weather enhanced demand from Alberta and Ontario feedlot operators. Many feedlot operators have shrugged off the tariff threat and are carrying on business as normal. Auction market scouts, who are sourcing for cattle, report that many cow calf producers sold cattle earlier in December or January. It appears that there will be a sharp drop in available numbers in Western Canada during March and April. This sentiment appears to have spurred on larger operations to secure ownership of feeder cattle in the short-term
At the Lloydminster sale, larger frame lower flesh Simmental based steers weighing 950 pounds sold for $363. South of Edmonton, larger frame mixed steers on barley and corn silage ration with full processing records averaging 903 pounds traded for $370. North of Calgary, Limousin mixed heifers carrying lighter butter averaging 910 pounds supposedly traded for $335.
At the St Rose Auction in Manitoba, medium to larger frame red steers evaluated at 800 pounds notched the board at $395. At the same sale, larger frame black heifers on the card at 809 pounds were valued at $357. The Prince Alberta auction market report had black steers weighing 742 pounds trading for $400. In Central Alberta, a smaller string of 705-pounds Angus blended steers on light barley and silage diet with full processing data were last bid at $432. In Southern Alberta, red Simmental based heifers averaging a hair over 700 pounds reportedly moved at $374.
The Lloydminster Auction Market Report had black mixed steers evaluated at 604 pounds selling for $486. In central Saskatchewan, run-of-the-mill mixed heifers scaled at 610 pounds apparently sold for $408. In Manitoba, Simmental cross steers weighing a hair over 600 pounds were quoted at $479. In central Alberta, pre-conditioned Charolais heifers weighing 625 pounds on hay and silage diet were valued at $433.
The Prince Albert Market Report had 500-pound black steers selling for $560. In southern Alberta, Charolais based steers averaging 510 pounds were quoted at $570. In Manitoba, a smaller package of Charolais heifers weighing 505 pounds reportedly sold for $469.
U.S. feedlot placements during January were 1.822 million head, up 2% or 31,000 head from the January 2024 figure of 1.791 million. In the U.S., we’re seeing a build-up of market-ready fed cattle supplies. The opposite is occurring in Western Canada. Market-ready fed cattle supplies in Alberta and Saskatchewan are extremely tight. The function of the Western Canadian feeder cattle market is to ration demand by trading at a premium to U.S. values.
It appears that there will be a sharp drop in available numbers in Western Canada during March and April. This sentiment appears to have spurred on larger operations to secure ownership of feeder cattle in the short-term.
For this forecast period, as predicted a week ago, we're finally going to see an end to this long cold snap. The polar vortex is weakening and is forecasted to move off to the east. This will allow for a strong push of mild Pacific air to flood across the Prairies. It should bring temperatures above freezing to Alberta beginning early in the forecast period. Near to above freezing temperatures should move into Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the weekend.
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