Cold November — warm December?
Old Farmer’s Almanac, the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac, and Environment Canada all have different forecasts. Who will be right?
| 4 min read
By Daniel Bezte
Here is the first snow cover map of the season, showing snow depth across the Prairies as of Nov. 30. The map was originally created by Environment Canada, but I did a lot of “cleaning up” to make the map easier to read. For this reason some of the data has been lost, so the map should only be used to give a rough idea as to how much snow cover there actually is. That said, we have seen a fairly early development of a significant snowpack this year as a good portion of the Prairie provinces has 10-plus cm of snow cover. The dotted black line on the map is the average extent of the one-cm snow line at this time of the year.
November started where October left off, nice and warm.
During the first week or so, temperatures right across the Prairies were running a good 5° above average. Edmonton saw highs in the low double digits on Nov. 6, while Calgary saw temperatures soar to 16 C on the same day. Regina topped out at 12 C on the 1st of the month, with Winnipeg seeing daytime highs right around 10 C on a couple of days.
All in all it was looking like winter was going to take its sweet time moving in.
Then came the second week of November and the remnants of a powerful typhoon over the Pacific turned into one of the strongest storm systems ever recorded in the Gulf of Alaska. This system, in turn, influenced the weather across North America, causing a strong ridge of high pressure to build along the west coast and a deep trough of low pressure to form over the western half of the continent. The end result was a pattern that allowed cold arctic air to pour southwards bringing some record-breaking cold temperatures from Alberta eastwards.
Needless to say, when all the numbers for the month were added up, all three Prairie provinces reported well-below-average temperatures. Calgary, Edmonton, and Peace River reported mean monthly temperatures that were about 2.5 C below the long-term average, Regina recorded a mean monthly temperature that was 3.0 C colder than average, while Saskatoon was not far behind with a recording of 2.6 C below average. In Manitoba it was even colder, with Winnipeg reporting a mean temperature that was 3.4 C below average. Dauphin was the cold spot, with a mean monthly November temperature of -9.1 C which was 3.8 C colder than average.
The pattern of precipitation during November was opposite of the temperature trend. Manitoba was the driest of the three Prairie provinces, with all three locations (Winnipeg, Brandon, and Dauphin) reporting below-average amounts. The Winnipeg region was the driest, receiving about 40 per cent of average precipitation reported. Regina saw average amounts of precipitation, while Saskatoon was wetter, with nearly twice the monthly average. Alberta saw a much wetter-than-average November, with all three locations reporting above-average amounts. Edmonton reported 31.4 mm of water-equivalent precipitation, which was nearly double its average. Thanks to a couple of different storm systems, Calgary recorded around 43 mm of water-equivalent precipitation, more than three times its average.
Put it all together and November was colder and wetter than average across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and colder and drier than average across Manitoba. If we look back at the different long-range forecasts, it appears none were correct. While some of them did predict wetter-than-average conditions across the Prairies, all of them either predicted near-average temperatures or warmer-than-average conditions.
Now the million-dollar question: What will December hold in store for us this year?
Well, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, December is going to be a little warmer than average right across the Prairies, with near-average amounts of snowfall. It then does a 180-degree turn for January with a call for well-below-average temperatures and below-average snowfall.
Over at the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac it appears to be calling for colder-than-average temperatures, especially late in the month as it indicates bitterly cold temperatures moving in just before Christmas. It looks like it will be a very snowy month, according to these folks as they mention stormy conditions at least six times during the month. This cold and snowy pattern looks like it will continue into January as they mention heavy snow and intense storms along with cold temperatures for much of the month.
Next we look at the outlook from Environment Canada’s forecasters. They are calling for above-average temperatures for everywhere except for southeastern Manitoba, where average temperatures are expected. These types of temperatures are expected to continue into January. Precipitation looks like it will be near to slightly below average for both December and January, with much of Saskatchewan seeing the best chance of below-average amounts.
Finally, for my long-range outlook, my weather Ouija board is telling me to trust Environment Canada’s forecast. While I think we’ll still see a few bone-chilling cold snaps, overall I think the mild weather will win out over the cold. Snowfall is always much tougher as one storm can bring a winter’s worth of precipitation in a day or two. If we do see milder-than-average temperatures though, then the odds are that we’ll see near- to below-average snowfall.
