Tariffs mute Manitoba welcome for new potato processor

Glacier FarmMedia – With a driving distance 131 kilometres south of Manitoba’s southern border, the recently announced Agristo potato processing plant in Grand Forks, North Dakota, should be exciting news for the province’s potato producers.

That’s assuming the normal trade landscape though. The new reality, where U.S. president Donald Trump started his time in office with a vow to impose 25 per cent tariffs against Canada and Mexico, has taken some wind out of any excitement.

The new plant is part of a general international expansion plan for the Belgium-based potato processor.

In Europe, the company is expanding its production capacity in “key locations” such as its site in Wielsbeke, Belgium and, according to an Agristo news release, is conducting prep work for another new plant in Escaudoeuvres, France.

The US$450 million plant in North Dakota will be the company’s first jaunt into North America and its second non-European venture — the other being a processing line dedicated to dried flaked potatoes in India.

The company chose Grand Forks for its “strong agricultural community with deep expertise in potato farming.”

“North Dakota’s vast agricultural land and favourable growing conditions proved ideal during extensive tests of potato varieties. These trials demonstrated exceptional potential for optimal crop yield and quality,” read the news release.

“Additionally, the expansive land and development-friendly policies in the region provide ample room for future growth, aligning perfectly with our ambition to expand as market demand continues to rise.”

Agristo plans to break ground on the plant this year, with operations starting by summer 2028.

Manitoba potatoes vulnerable to tariffs

Victoria Stamper, general manager of the United Potato Growers of Canada, considers the plant good news for the potato industry in general. “Overall I think any plant expansion is positive for the industry in the sense that it uses more potatoes and promotes consumption overall,” she said.

Aside from logistics, Manitoba-North Dakota trade appears to make sense because the jurisdictions share the same coarse-textured, sandy soil suitable for potato production, said Susan Ainsworth, general manager of the Keystone Potato Producers Association.

At the same time though, Manitoba is particularly vulnerable to any U.S. tariffs, Stamper added.

According to Statistics Canada data, the province accounts for almost 10 per cent of Canada’s fresh potatoes earmarked for export, while prepared potatoes were ranked as the province’s No. 2 agricultural export to the U.S. for 2024, worth $771 million, according to Manitoba Agriculture trade statistics. It’s home to major potato processing facilities for both J.R. Simplot and McCain Foods. The vast majority of those prepared potatoes head down to the U.S.

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Also, given the province’s central location in Canada, for any potatoes bound for processors outside of Manitoba, Stamper noted that North Dakota trade can be more economical than shipping west or east in Canada.

Canada’s fresh potato exports in general are heavily reliant on the U.S., Stamper noted —to the tune of 91 per cent headed stateside —and trade could be complicated by tariffs.

“With the low Canadian dollar, combined with the freight differential of bringing potatoes from the west, we do hope that our potatoes will remain competitive, but there is no doubt that there will be a significant impact,” she wrote in an email. “To what degree is difficult to forecast.”

U.S. needs Canadian potatoes

Like other Canadian ag sectors, Canada’s potato industry is highly entwined with its U.S. equivalent.

“After many years of developing this market they of course have valuable customers they do not wish to lose and reports are that it will certainly be a negotiation in order to remain competitive in the markets south of the border,” Stamper wrote.

If 2023-24 trends are any indication, the U.S. needs Canadian potatoes to meet its needs.

According to Statistics Canada, the U.S. consistently has a trade deficit with Canada on the potato front.

Last year Canada sent $3.6-billion worth of fresh, seed, frozen and other potatoes to its export markets, while importing $534 million worth across the same potato categories. Of the over 494 million tonnes of fresh potato exports, 91 per cent were bound for the U.S.

“While there are some potatoes that are railed in from Idaho to the New York and Boston terminals, most of the eastern states do rely on trade with Canada to support their markets,” Stamper said.

“Discussions with many of the large brokers and packers in the U.S. indicate they understand that they will be paying more for those potatoes if tariffs do go forward.”

According to StatCan, Prince Edward Island exported nearly 169,000 tonnes of fresh potatoes, or 34 per cent, of all Canadian exported fresh potatoes in the 2023-24 year, making the province the largest fresh potato exporter in Canada. Manitoba accounted for 47,900 tonnes that same year, the most out of any Prairie province.