Minor tweaks in AAFC supply and demand report

Glacier FarmMedia — There were only small changes in the latest supply and demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released on Feb. 18.

AAFC projected total planted area for 2026/27 at 31.70 million hectares, slipping 103,000 from the previous year. Total harvested area was little changed at 30.71 million hectares.

Related: USDA sees more soybean acres, less corn

“Seeding decisions are expected to be shaped by crop rotation needs, prevailing moisture conditions, anticipated price levels and input costs and availability,” AAFC wrote. “Under current market conditions and based on historical patterns, total seeded area for Canadian field crops is projected to broadly stable year-over-year.”

The agency also forecast yields to return to normal levels in 2026/27 from the unexpected increases in 2025/26. With overall production to decrease, ending stocks have been projected to decline significantly in 2026/27, despite slower exports.

Wheat

• All wheat area was projected to remain relatively steady at 10.94 million hectares. Of that total, durum area is to be 2.46 million hectares versus 2.64 million in 2025/26. Wheat (no durum) is to expand to 8.48 million hectares from nearly 8.30 million in 2025/26.
• AAFC kept all wheat production for the coming crop year at 34.98 million tonnes.
• Wheat ending stocks were kept at 5.700 million tonnes for 2026/27, with those for 2025/26 slipping to 7.35 million.

Canola

• Planted canola area for 2026/27 stayed at January’s 8.92 million hectares, up from 8.75 million the previous year.
• However, yields are to drop to 2.17 tonnes per hectare from 2.51 in 2025/26. That’s to lower production by almost 12 per cent at 19.20 million tonnes.
• AAFC kept its call for 2025/26 canola exports to 8.20 million tonnes and those for 2026/27 remained at 7.50 million.
• Canola ending stocks were nudged up by 10,000 tonnes each for 2025/26 at 2.76 million tonnes and 2026/27 at 1.66 million tonnes.

Barley/Oats

• AAFC kept its estimate on planted barley area for this spring at 2.64 million hectares, up from 2.48 million last year. Ending stocks are to drop from 1.60 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 900,000 in 2026/27.
• The agency also maintained planted oat area for 2026/27 at 1.24 million hectares, slightly higher from the year before. Based on a more average yield of 3.43 t/ha. production is to drop to 3.55 million tonnes from last year’s 3.92 million.

Soybeans/Corn

• There were no changes in AAFC’s corn data for 2026/27, and it was much the same for soybeans. The agency raised 2026/27 soybean ending stocks to 743,000 tonnes from 650,000 last month.

Peas/Lentils

• AAFC kept most of its January pulse numbers in its February report.
• Pea production stayed at 2.85 million tonnes for 2026/27, as did lentils at 2.25 million tonnes. In 2025/26 peas came in at 3.93 million tonnes with lentils at 3.36 million.
• Ending stocks were bumped up from January, with dry peas now at 845,000 tonnes and lentils at 1.57 million.

1 hectare = 2.47 acres