AAFC lowers canola export forecast

MarketsFarm — Canadian canola exports during the 2021-22 marketing year are forecast to be smaller than earlier projections, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) reported late Friday.

Domestic usage, however, was raised in the report, keeping ending stocks of the crop steady with the October forecast.

Total Canadian canola exports in 2021-22 are now forecast at only 5.5 million tonnes by the government agency. That would be down by a million tonnes from the earlier estimate, and roughly half of the 10.534 million reported in 2020-21.

Domestic usage for canola in 2021-22 was raised by a million tonnes on the month, to 8.699 million tonnes. That compares with 10.741 million tonnes the previous year.

Canola ending stocks for 2021-22 were left unchanged at 500,000 tonnes, which would be well below the 1.767 million-tonne carryout from 2020-21 and the tightest supplies in more than two decades.

Supply/demand balance sheets were largely left unchanged on most other crops, with only minor adjustments from the previous month.

Statistics Canada releases survey-based production estimates on Dec. 3, which will likely lead to larger adjustments in subsequent AAFC supply/demand reports.

Tables: November estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.