AAFC lowers ending stocks estimates on crops

MarketsFarm — Canadian producers will see much tighter grain and oilseed stocks at the end of the current 2021-22 marketing year than what was expected last month, while those for pulse and special crops remain mostly steady.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) September supply/demand estimates, released Friday, project 2021-22 ending stocks for all principal field crops at a total of 7.845 million tonnes, a decline of 9.7 per cent from August.

Due in large part to drought conditions in Western Canada, which greatly affected production numbers, the September total is a 39.4 per cent drop from last year’s ending stocks of 12.938 million tonnes.

Ending stocks for grains and oilseeds were estimated at 7.38 million tonnes for September, 10.4 per cent less than the 8.24 million in August. Pulse and special crops ending stocks totalled 465,000 tonnes in September, only 15,000 more than in August but 1.002 million fewer than last year.

Canola stocks continue to sharply drop month-by-month due to declining production numbers. September’s ending stock estimate is at 500,000 tonnes, 200,000 less than in August’s report and 1.267 million less than the upwardly revised 2020-21 carryout.

On the other hand, ending stocks for all wheat are at 3.95 million tonnes, 51.9 per cent more than August’s estimate of 2.6 million, but 30.8 per cent less than the 5.705 million from last year.

Pea and lentil ending stocks for 2021-22 were both left unchanged at 50,000 tonnes, well below the 479,000 and 406,000 tonne respective carryout stocks from the previous year.

Tables: September estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.