AAFC revise grain figures in August estimates

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm—Days before Statistics Canada presents its monthly principal field crop estimates, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its estimates on Aug. 20, showing some changes to grains from the month before.

Projected grain and oilseed crop production dropped to 86.947 million tonnes, compared to AAFC’s July estimate of 88.69 million and the revised 2023-24 total of 84.654 million. All wheat production was pegged at 34.357 million tonnes, down from the 35.428 million-tonne figure from last month. Durum declined 261,000 tonnes at 6.039 million, while barley fell 630,000 tonnes at 7.878 million. Corn gained 100,000 tonnes at 15 million, while oats were down by 141,000 tonnes at 3.191 million.

Estimated total exports for grains and oilseeds went up 200,000 tonnes at 45.033 million, compared to 44.327 million in 2023-24. Barley declined the most from July by 200,000 tonnes at 2.750 million, while canola was up 500,000 tonnes at 7.500 million. All wheat was down 50,000 tonnes at 25.300 million.

Projected domestic usage for grains and oilseeds was cut by 757,000 tonnes at 45.337 million, 90,000 less than the 2023-24 total. All wheat dropped by 921,000 tonnes at 8.757 million, but corn rose by 550,000 tonnes at 16.050 million.

Ending stocks for grains and oilseeds were slated to be 8.620 million tonnes, down from the July projection of 9.015 million and the 2023-24 total of 8.256 million. All wheat declined by 425,000 tonnes at 2.8 million, while canola rose by 130,000 tonnes at 2.23 million.

Projected pulse and specialty crop production was unchanged from July at 6.916 million tonnes, higher than the 5.137 million tonnes from 2023-24. Estimated exports were also left alone at 5.223 million tonnes, compared to 4.930 million in 2023-24, as well as domestic usage at 1.163 million tonnes, higher than 1.033 million in the previous marketing year. Ending stocks only went down by 5,000 tonnes to 1.395 million because of a corresponding decline in sunflower seed stocks. In 2023-24, ending stocks for pulse and specialty crops were 596,000 tonnes.