AAFC ups wheat production, usage numbers; stocks steady

MarketsFarm — Projected ending stocks of Canada’s major crops were left relatively unchanged in the latest supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released Monday, although there were some revisions to the wheat production and usage numbers.

The government agency raised its forecast for total Canadian wheat production in 2022-23 to 33.092 million tonnes, up from the May estimate of 31.601 million and the year-ago level of 21.652 million tonnes when drought cut into yields.

Projected wheat exports for 2022-23 were raised by 300,000 tonnes, to 22.2 million. That compares with an estimated 14.8 million tonnes in the current market year. Domestic usage was forecast to be up by roughly 1.2 million tonnes from the previous month, at 9.567 million tonnes. As a result, wheat ending stocks for 2022-23 were left unchanged at five million tonnes. The carryout for 2021-22 was also left unchanged at 3.55 million tonnes.

Canola ending stocks for both the current marketing year and the upcoming 2022/23 crop year were left unchanged at 400,000 and 500,000 tonnes respectively. Production, exports and domestic usage numbers for both crop years were also left unchanged for canola.

Canola production for 2022-23 is forecast at 17.95 million tonnes by AAFC, which compares with 12.595 million tonnes in 2021-22. Exports are expected to increase to 8.8 million tonnes in the new crop year, from 5.15 million, while domestic usage is forecast to be up by only 2.6 per cent on the year at 9.15 million tonnes.

Pulses and special crops only saw minor adjustments on the month.

Statistics Canada releases its next acreage estimates for the 2022-23 growing season on July 5, which should lead to larger revisions in subsequent supply/demand projections.

Tables: June estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.