Prairie Forecast: Above-average temperatures to continue

The upper ridge that has been in place over much of B.C. and Alberta over the last few weeks looks to remain in place, at least for a few more days. There are some indications of a shift in the overall weather pattern towards a warm and wetter setup.

As predicted, an area of low pressure formed over far northern Alberta. This low is quickly dropping southeast toward northwestern Ontario. The low will bring clouds and showers over the northern Prairies, shifting southward as it tracks through Manitoba. This system will quickly pull out of the Prairies by Thursday and much cooler conditions will move in behind the low, especially over the eastern Prairies.

This cooldown does not look like it will last long. The weather models show a weak trough developing over the West Coast by the weekend. This will create a cyclonic flow over this region resulting in the development of a leeside low in Alberta late in the weekend. Currently, it looks like this low will take several days to slowly drift northward and then eastward. The counterclockwise rotation around the low will help to draw warm air northward, bringing well-above average temperatures to most of the Prairies.

Alberta

Warm dry weather looks to continue into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate. Late in the weekend an area of low pressure should develop which will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to a large portion of the province. The easterly flow into the low will likely result in western regions seeing the best chance of significant rainfall. This low looks like it will take until Wednesday (May 24) to finally weaken and move off.

Saskatchewan

Warm and dry weather is expected for most of this forecast period. Weak high pressure will bring seasonal temperatures to start, but an increasing southerly flow should boost temperatures to above average over the weekend. As the Alberta low winds up early next week and humidity increases, expect to see some widely scattered thundershowers.

Manitoba

The area of low-pressure diving southeastward will bring a quick shot of cold air to the whole province on Thursday. Temperatures will start to quickly rebound on Friday and Saturday as high pressure settles in. As the flow becomes more southerly late in the weekend and into the first half of next week, expect temperatures to be well-above average. Humidity also looks to increase, making it feel very summery. With the heat and humidity will come the chance of thunderstorms, especially around Tuesday or Wednesday.

— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.