Canada boosts 2019-20 wheat production estimate

AAFC leaves canola production estimate unchanged

wheat and canola
(Elenaphotos/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — Canadian wheat production in 2019-20 is forecast to come in at 500,000 tonnes above an earlier forecast, according to updated supply/demand tables released Wednesday from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Wheat ending stocks were also raised in the report, while adjustments to the canola tables led a slight reduction to the still record-large carryout forecast.

Total Canadian wheat production for 2019-20 is now forecast at 32.5 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 32 million and the year-ago level of 31.769 million. If realized, that would mark the second-largest Canadian wheat crop on record.

Of the total, durum production for 2019-20 was raised to 5.1 million tonnes, from five million in July. That compares with the 5.745 million tonnes grown the previous year.

Total Canadian wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 were raised to 5.5 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 5.1 million and the 2018-19 carryout of an estimated 5.2 million.

AAFC left its canola production estimate for 2019-20 unchanged at 18.575 million tonnes, but raised its oldcrop export forecast slightly. As a result, ending stocks for both 2018-19 and 2019-20 were tightened to 3.7 million and 3.775 million tonnes respectively. Both would still be record large, comparing to the previous record of 3.008 million set in 2013-14.

Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based production estimates for the 2019-20 crop year on Wednesday next week (Aug. 28).

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Tagged , , , , , , ,
COPA Medallion COPA finalist in 2012, 2014 and 2015.
©2019 AGCanada is a production of Glacier FarmMedia Limited Partnership. Any affiliated or third party content is the property of its respective owner and is used with permission.
Please refer to Copyright Page for details.
Click here to view our Website Terms of Use.