Canadian corn imports expected to slow in 2024/25

Glacier FarmMedia – Early expectations point to increased Canadian grain production in 2024/25, which should cut into corn imports from the United States, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s attaché in Ottawa.

Total Canadian grain production, which includes wheat, durum, barley, corn, and oats, is forecast to increase by 4.9 per cent on the year, at 61.4 million tonnes, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Wheat production is expected to hit 33.67 million tonnes, which would be up by 1.7 million tonnes on the year, but below Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s own projection of 34.59 million tonnes.

“The upside risk to this forecast is that dry conditions will encourage farmers to plant more wheat than the planting intentions survey indicates, as wheat is a drought-resilient crop,” said the USDA attaché. “The downside risk is that currently dry conditions in most of the wheat-growing regions of the Prairies, particularly in Alberta, will not get the spring moisture needed and yields will not rebound as expected.”

For barley, the attaché expects total production to hit 8.99 million tonnes, which would be up by about 100,000 tonnes on the year but still half a million tonnes below the AAFC forecast. Barley acres are forecast to be down, as low prices deter some acres, but better growing conditions should boost yields.

With expected improvements in forage and grazing supplies, along with increased domestic grain production, Canadian corn imports are forecast to drop to 2.30 million tonnes from an estimated 3.30 million tonnes in the current marketing year. Most of that corn comes from the U.S.

U.S. Department of Agriculture export data for the week ended April 18 shows that Canada has already imported 861,700 tonnes of U.S. corn during the marketing year that began Sept. 1. That’s more than double the accumulated imports at the same time the previous year. There are an additional 144,100 tonnes of corn on the books slated to move later in the crop year – which compares with 135,400 tonnes of outstanding sales at this time in 2023.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.