Canadian wheat, canola stocks projections revised higher

MarketsFarm — Canadian wheat and canola ending stocks for the 2022-23 crop year are forecast to end up above earlier projections, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released late Friday.

The updated estimates account for recent production and old-crop carryout numbers from Statistics Canada.

Total wheat ending stocks for 2022-23 are now forecast at 6.3 million tonnes by the government agency, which would be up by 400,000 tonnes from the August estimate and well above the 3.67 million-tonne carryout from 2021-22. Anticipated exports were raised slightly from August, while domestic wheat usage was lowered.

Canola ending stocks for 2022-23 were pegged at 500,000 tonnes, which compares with an earlier estimate of 450,000 tonnes. Canola carryout for 2021-22 came in at 875,000 tonnes.

Canola exports are forecast to rise substantially on the year with expected production of 19.10 million tonnes up by 39 per cent from the drought-stricken 2021-22 crop. Total canola exports for 2022-23 are now forecast at 9.3 million tonnes. That would be up by 100,000 from the August estimate and well above the 5.27 million tonnes exported in 2021-22. Domestic usage for canola is forecast at 10.27 million tonnes, which compares with 9.5 million the previous year.

Table: September estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.