CBOT weekly: Good weather weighs on soybeans/corn, with more room to downside

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – A lack of any major weather concerns kept soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade trending lower during the last week of July, with many months hitting contract lows.

“There’s still potential for more downside… the weather looks fantastic,” according to Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist with Marex in Chicago, although he added that price levels were getting to the point that could start bringing in more end user buying interest. Poor export demand for soybeans, along with large speculative short positions in soybeans and corn were adding to the negative undertone in the futures.

He expected September corn could fall as low as US$3.70 per bushel before finding support, with a downside target of US$3.85 in the December contract. For soybeans, Reilly expected the November contract “could easily test” US$9.75 to US$9.80 per bushel.

Barring a weather scare, any recovery in the futures will likely depend on outside geopolitical events, according to Reilly who pointed to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East as things to watch.

Wheat has the most potential to the upside, according to Reilly, due to weather problems in France and persistent dryness for spring wheat in the Canadian Prairies. He placed support in the nearby Chicago futures at the psychological US$5.00 per bushel level.