CBOT Weekly: Grains, oilseeds down ahead of an uncertain 2026

Glacier FarmMedia — Grain and oilseed futures saw downturns on the Chicago Board of Trade during the week ended Dec. 17, largely due to a lack of exports and delayed data.

• · The January soybean contract lost 33 U.S. cents per bushel week-to-week to close at US$10.5825 on Dec. 17, while the March contract pulled back 32.25 cents at US$10.69.
• · March Chicago soft wheat fell 23.25 cents at US$5.0625, while March Kansas City hard red wheat declined 15.5 cents at US$5.0775 and March Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 13.25 cents at US$5.62.
• · March corn was down 3.75 cents at US$4.4050.

Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said that soybeans led the way down as it becomes more apparent China will not fulfill its commitment to purchase 12 million tonnes of soybeans from the United States by either the end of 2025 or February 2026. There is also doubt amongst the trade that China will purchase 25 million tonnes in 2026 and 2027.

“It’s going to be awful tough for (China) to fulfill that. Brazil (soybeans are) so much cheaper than us and it looks like they’re going to have a big crop,” Capinegro said.

Soybeans were at a near-record net long position for the week ended Nov. 18 at 229,625 contracts, the largest since October 2020. However, the U.S. government shutdown last month, which postponed reporting, meant analysts were largely unaware until that week’s Commitment of Traders report was released on Dec. 12.

“It would’ve been nice as brokers and the public to know they were long that many beans. All of a sudden, there was a high that day and down we went,” Capinegro said, adding he is checking the 200-day averages to see if they hold.

A large global wheat crop and increased competition from overseas have resulted in lagging U.S. wheat exports, leading to new contract lows. Meanwhile, Capinegro added that he would like to see March corn bounce off the US$4.35/bu. level.

There will be plenty of uncertainty in the markets when the calendar turns to 2026, Capinegro said, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Dec. 16 a planned blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers.

“Who knows what that’s going to lead to? If there’s a real disruption, it might be a little bullish for the crude oil market, which could also support the grain market. You have the Supreme Court still yet to rule on tariffs,” he said. “If you took tariffs off, it would rally the market. It makes our farm products a little bit cheaper for the world. A lot of things could play out in the next few weeks.

“Before (2025), we just had tariffs on China. Now we have it on the world … We’re oversupplying the world. Countries are asking which one is the cheapest and that’s where they’ll go.”