CBOT weekly outlook: Corn acres could drop further says strategist

Glacier FarmMedia – Corn acres in the United States may end up even lower than early expectations if the market remains under pressure, according to an analyst.

As corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) continued to fall, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected seeded area for 2024-25 to decline by 3.6 million acres on the year, at 91 million, in its annual Agriculture Outlook Forum Feb. 15.

Scott Capinegro, a Barrington, Ill.-based strategist for AgMarket.net, said he wouldn’t be surprised if corn acres fall even further.

“When you think back to March planting intentions last year, we were looking for 92 million acres (of corn). We ended up with 94.6 million. Last year, the crop insurance (price) was US$5.91 (per bushel). Right now, crop insurance is under US$4.75/bu.,” he said. “We could lose more than three million acres.”

Capinegro blamed the lower prices on the funds as well as “too much farmer ownership.”

Soybean and wheat prices at the CBOT eased lower during the week ended Feb. 21 despite corrective buying the day before, coming out of the Presidents Day weekend. Capinegro said that the world is still looking at South America for its soybean needs rather than the U.S.

He added that with insurance levels still being sorted out, there may still be volatility in grain markets before the month ends.

“Any day can be a bottom with a bounce,” Capinegro said.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.