Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soy move with trader positioning

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada –– Corn and soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are moving in trader-positioning with technical features and ahead of key data.

Investors in CBOT corn and soybean markets are rolling out of positions in the July contract into more deferred months.

“With that said, we’re seeing a lot of shorts shore-up positions,” Reilly said, ahead of data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday.

The government agency is set to release its acreage and grain stocks reports June 30.

Reilly expects USDA data to show implied feed usage was strong last quarter, which could be supportive for corn.

For soybeans, stocks are expected to be heavy, he said.

“Given that there’s probably more soybeans out there then what’s down on paper at the moment.”

If the reports are neutral for soybeans and corn, those markets are likely to inch higher in the aftermath, as weather models indicate a drier and warmer outlook in the U.S. for mid-July.

A generally weaker U.S. dollar is also expected to act as a supportive feature in commodity markets in the near term, Reilly said.

Since last week, corn prices lost 12 cents per bushel in the July contract, which closed at $3.5675, while the September contract declined close to 10 cents per bushel, ending at $3.6625 on Wednesday (all figures US$).

Soybeans fell about five cents per bushel in the July contract on the week, ending at $9.14, while the August contract lost 3-1/2 cents, closing at $9.19 on Wednesday.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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