CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soybeans poised for move upward

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(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada — Wet weather across much of the Midwest could be throwing a monkey wrench into the plans of U.S. corn farmers, according to a market-watcher.

Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Barrington, Illinois, says much of the U.S. corn crop still has to go into the ground while some crops need to be replanted.

“(Parts of) Missouri, Illinois and Indiana are going to get more rain tonight and tomorrow, so there is a problem developing,” he said Wednesday.

For the last few weeks, ideas have circulated that more acres could be used for soybeans if corn planting is significantly delayed.

“Not only are we wet but we’ve been cold; we can’t warm up,” he added.

Capinegro said large funds are still short in the market when it comes to corn, but a growing number of investors were starting to “shake them out.”

July corn isn’t worth $4 a bushel yet, but it could still trade up and trigger some stops, he said (all figures US$).

“Can we be in a $3.75 to $3.95 range? Yeah, but probably closer to $3.80,” he said.

Soybeans also lost ground on the week, with the July contract dropping five cents compared to the week before. The soybean market initially climbed on Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand report came out, but traders took profits and prices headed downward.

“Soybeans had a nice technical rally happening,” said Capinegro. “Still, they have to be planted yet, so it’s early.”

It’s surprising beans have held up as well as they have, given the year’s sizable carryout, he said.

“Why are we still worth $9.50 with all this carryout?” he said. “It should be down a buck from here.”

The U.S. market could also be ripe for some type of weather event during the summer, he added.

“Things have been kind of good for the past three years so you’d think we’re due for some kind of weather scare.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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