CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, wheat lower; soybeans move up
Corn, wheat already face harvest price pressure
| 2 min read
CBOT December 2023 soft red winter wheat with 20-day moving average, MGEX December 2023 hard red spring wheat (yellow line) and K.C. December 2023 hard red winter wheat (orange line). (Barchart)
MarketsFarm — Corn and wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were on the decline during the week ended Wednesday, but those for soybeans were going in the opposite direction until hitting resistance.
The December corn contract ended the week 9.75 cents per bushel lower at $4.8075 per bushel (all figures US$). The Chicago December wheat contract lost 22.75 cents at $6.07/bu., while the Kansas City hard red wheat contract dropped 32 cents to $7.3175/bu. The Minneapolis December spring wheat contract finished the week at $7.8025 for a 23-cent/bu. decline.
Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodity Brokers at Barrington, Ill. said corn and wheat’s recent downturns were the result of traders “buying the rumour and selling the fact.
“We have more heat coming in (to corn and wheat growing areas), but the market action does not reflect any real, real problems,” he said. “Yields have come down. There’s no question about that. But again, funds rule at the end of the day. Long beans, short corn, short wheat. The wheat market looks like (the funds) will never cover that.”
Harvesting operations have just begun for corn and spring wheat, but they can provide pressure on prices, he added. He also hopes corn and wheat can reach a price point that can attract international interest.
The Chicago November soybean contract gained 26.25 cents/bu. during the week to close Wednesday at $13.8675, largely due to hot and dry conditions in the U.S. Midwest. However, after closing at $14.0575/bu. on Monday, the two following sessions were negative.
Capinegro said it’s hard to tell now how much the recent heat wave will affect soybeans’ development.
“You’re probably going to have pods that won’t develop any bean at all. Some of the beans that are in there, we could end up with BB-size. It’s still a little bit on the early side,” he said.
Yields coming from early harvests will likely determine where crop prices will go until the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases its monthly supply/demand estimates on Sept. 12.
“Those reports coming out of those fields will probably dictate a little bit more price direction,” he explained.
— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
