CBOT weekly outlook: Harvest pressures run up against harvest conditions

CNS Canada — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved higher during the week ended Wednesday, as a rally in soyoil, solid export demand and concerns over harvest delays across the U.S. Midwest all provided support.

The U.S. soybean harvest was just getting started, with four per cent in the bin as of Sunday. Traders are bracing for a record-large crop, but heavy rains hitting parts of the farm belt have raised concerns over delays and yield losses.

The back-and-forth between seasonal harvest pressure and weather-related problems is expected to be a feature in the soybean market over the upcoming month.

From a chart standpoint, the November contract climbed as high as $9.94 per bushel during the week, but backed away to settle Wednesday at $9.75 (all figures US$).

Without a fresh weather scare, that upper level may hold as nearby resistance, with support found in the $9.43 per bushel area.

CBOT corn futures edged higher over the course of the week, as the larger advances in soybeans provided spillover support. Weather-related harvest delays were also underpinning the corn market, although big supplies are also still expected overall.

The December contract is trading right around major resistance at $3.50 per bushel, and it will take a significant break above that point to signal a move outside of the sideways trading range.

On the other side, support comes in at the $3.25 per bushel mark hit in late August.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.