CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn futures seen hinging on USDA data

CNS Canada — CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) soybean futures posted solid gains over the past week, but backed away Wednesday, which could be a sign of further losses to come as market participants await direction from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s acreage report on Tuesday.

John Weyer, co-director of the commercial hedge division at Walsh Trading, said farmers in Missouri plan on seeding more soybean acres.

The USDA acreage report, due out June 30, may send prices to $9.50 or lower.

“We’re going to see an increase in acres that people aren’t looking for right now,” Weyer said.

However, if that extra area isn’t included in the report, declining Midwestern crop conditions could drive new-crop prices above $10, he added.

Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst at Futures International, said soybean prices will range from $9.35 to $10.25, depending on what USDA says.

Corn acres

Weyer said the market could be looking at less acreage for corn crops than expected, which could have a bullish effect on prices.

“We’re getting more recent reports that some of the corn isn’t planted to levels that we originally thought.”

Prices should move toward the $3.90 area, if not going up to $4, he said. If growing regions get any extreme weather, prices could go even higher.

September corn prices should move up to about $3.85, and if it moves past that level, they will rally to $4, Reilly said.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.