Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn market attention shifts north

CNS Canada — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower over the past week, but stabilized at those lows as attention shifts from weather concerns in Argentina to planting intentions in North America.

Rains in Argentina over the past weekend helped ease dryness concerns there somewhat and caused soybeans and corn futures to drop on Monday. However, the moisture likely came too late to improve Argentine crop prospects, according to market analysts.

Beyond the South American weather, “over the short term, we may trade two-sided in beans and possibly grind lower when we get into the spring planting season in the United States if we don’t see any problems,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago.

Reilly placed support in the May soybean contract at the 100-day moving average, around $10.09-$10.10 per bushel (all figures US$).

Meanwhile, he expected corn to be neutral in the short term, with a bearish outlook on wheat and oats likely limiting any upside potential. Reilly placed May corn in a narrow range between $3.70 and $3.80 per bushel.

Improving moisture conditions in Canada and the northern U.S. pressured Minneapolis wheat and Chicago oats, which should keep corn prices in check, according to Reilly.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its prospective plantings report on March 29, which should provide some nearby direction as traders square positions ahead of the data and then react.

General expectations are for an increase in soybean acres on the year and a decline in corn, with U.S. soybean acres likely to top corn for the first time in decades.

“The price relationship between beans and corn still favours beans,” said Reilly.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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