CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn strength impressive for time of year

MarketsFarm — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have posted solid gains over the week ended Wednesday, recovering after bearish yield and stocks data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture sparked a selloff a week earlier.

Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago used “pretty impressive” to describe the latest strength in the grains and oilseeds.

“Normally at this time of year we would see some harvest pressure, but it’s been the opposite,” he said, adding that solid crush margins were supporting soybeans, while ethanol margins were also very good for corn.

A lack of significant farmer selling across the U.S. Midwest was also underpinning futures, as producers appear content to wait for higher prices after selling some of their crop earlier, Reilly said.

The direction in crude oil could dictate what happens in the agricultural markets, he said, as global inflation and general strength in energy prices have contributed to speculative activity in grains and oilseeds.

From a chart standpoint, Reilly said November soybeans could move another 30 to 40 U.S. cents higher, with resistance coming in at US$12.80 per bushel.

December corn has an upside target around its nearby high of US$5.485 per bushel.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.