CBOT weekly outlook: Soybean markets excite while corn settles

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada — Soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are finding support from Argentina weather while corn markets remain stuck in sideways trading, according to a Chicago trader.

“The corn markets have kind of been left out of the Argentina weather equation with heavy fund selling here and there… and then might be left in a sideways trading range basis,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International.

The March contract will stay in the $3.45-$3.65 area if funds step in and start buying up the market, according to Reilly (all figures US$). However, corn prices are struggling as well, due to wheat continuing to grind lower.

Soybean markets have been supported by the dry weather in Argentina. Soybean futures reached a high Monday as the dominant January contract hit $10.1725.

“Prices are coming off here. But we look for prices to continue to be supported by Argentina dryness with maybe limited downsides,” Reilly said, adding if the weather forecasts continue to be unfavourable for Argentina, soybeans could rally up to $10.40.

Gains in the soybean markets have been held off due to poor U.S. exports, according to Reilly. The U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday released export numbers for October, which showed soybean exports decreased by $1.4 billion from the same time last year.

The census “confirmed that October soybean exports were much less than a year-ago level. And eventually we’re going to see the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) lower its U.S. soybean export forecasts,” he said.

In coming weeks, demand from China will also affect soybean markets, according to Reilly.

China has changed how it issues GMO inspection certificates, and there is speculation some boats could get tied up at ports, which will slow down Chinese imports.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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