CBOT weekly: Soybeans watching export news

Glacier FarmMedia — Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade climbed to their highest levels in a year-and-a-half on Nov. 18, as optimism over increasing sales to China provided support. However, more business will be needed to sustain the upward move, with traders uncertain whether the stated targets will be reached.

Exporters from the United States put on just over a million tonnes of sales to China in November, according to daily flash data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture since the end of the government shutdown. However, after a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October, U.S. President Donald Trump has said China would buy 12 million tonnes of soybeans before the end of the calendar year, and an additional 25 million tonnes each year for the next three years.

Before the trade war between the two countries intensified in May, China had bought six million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in 2025, which means total U.S. soybean sales to China in 2025 could reach 18 million tonnes.

If realized, that would still be below the 26.8 million tonnes of soybeans the U.S. sold to China in 2024.

From a chart standpoint, January soybeans face nearby resistance at US$11.60 per bushel, with the Nov. 18 session high at US$11.6950 the next upside target. Support comes in at the 20-day moving average around US$11.17 and again at the psychological US$11.00 per bushel mark.

Corn and wheat found spillover support from the advances in soybeans, but large global grain supplies tempered the upside.

Updated supply/demand estimates from the USDA forecast the largest U.S. wheat carryout in six years, with world stocks also up by 7.4 million tonnes from an earlier forecast at 271.4 million tonnes.