CBOT Weekly: Turning towards a weather market

Glacier FarmMedia — Soybeans and corn on the Chicago Board of Trade are heading toward a weather market, said Sean Lusk, vice-president of Walsh Commercial Hedging in Chicago. The move comes after two reports from the United States Department of Agriculture issued on June 30.

That day, the USDA issued its crop area and grain stocks reports. For 2025/26 planted acres, the U.S. crops were estimated at:

• Corn 95.20 million, up 4.61 million from 2024/25

• Soybeans 83.38 million, down 3.67 million from 2024/25

• All Wheat 45.48 million, down 601,000 from 2024/25.

The USDA estimated grain stocks as of June 1 at:

• Corn 4.65 billion bushels, down 353 million from last June

• Soybeans 1.01 billion bushels, up 38 million from last June

• All wheat 851 million bushels, up 155 million from last June.

Lusk said the reports had little effect on the markets after the day they were released as there were no major surprises.

“The focus is going be on weather, which is about 90 per cent of our pricing influence,” he said. “But there are still some uncertainties over the weather deep into July into August.”

Lusk suggested Chicago corn won’t slip below US$4 per bushel in the September contract, and August soybeans will remain above US$10/bushel.

He said prices could rally higher if warm, dry conditions dominate the summer. However, massive South American corn and soybean harvests will temper gains.

“It’s crunch time. There are going to be problems or questions. If there are more problems than questions, the market is going to rally,” Lusk stated.

“If (those) questions get answered and we’re ok, the market breaks,” he added.