Cool spring expected on Prairies

(Resource News International) — Cool temperatures are expected in most Prairie
province regions this spring while precipitation forecasts
range from below to above average, according to industry
experts.

“The forecast calls for it to be cooler than usual during
the spring in Manitoba, especially in the central and northern
parts of the province and from there right through to the
heart of Saskatchewan’s crop region, including all of southern
Saskatchewan and into the central and northern sections,” said Drew
Lerner of World Weather, Inc. in Kansas City.

Alberta, meanwhile, is expected to experience warmer than
average temperatures, especially as one moves away from the
southeast corner of the province, he said.

David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment
Canada agreed for the most part but felt Alberta will
also see below-average temperatures in the coming months.

The
cool weather trend will be partly the result of La Nina, a
cold pool of water off the coast of South America. The system
strengthened over the winter and is affecting weather patterns
in Canada, he explained.

As far as precipitation goes, Lerner believes levels for
the southern Prairie region will be above average. The trend
is expected to subside as one moves away from the east and
south-central parts, comprised mainly of Manitoba and
Saskatchewan.

Below-average precipitation is expected in central and
northwestern parts of Alberta going back into the Peace River
regions, he said.

“We’ll see a wetter bias across the southeast Prairie
regions and I think it’s something that will be with us during
the planting season. I am a little concerned about the
planting potential as a result,” Lerner said.

Phillips offered a different, although equally bleak,
forecast. “From a precipitation point of view, the situation
is not good. For most of the southern Prairies, we’re showing
April, May, June to be drier than normal.”

The news is
particularly worrying coming as it does after three dry
seasons, he noted. Moisture levels were down 40 per cent over
the winter, five per cent during the fall and 27 per cent this
past summer.

“Those are worrisome numbers right across the Prairies,
from Calgary right through to southeast Manitoba — in other
words, the agricultural belt.”

Phillips qualified his statement, however, saying
precipitation levels are notoriously difficult to predict.

“When you have a model like we have for April, May, and
June, where we’re saying ‘drier than normal,’ you can go along
for 80 of 90 days with dry weather and people say your model
works perfectly,” he said.

“Then all of a sudden it pours in the last two
weeks and it blows your forecast right out of the water. Now,
suddenly, the spring period is wetter than normal.”

As for the cooler weather, while it can work against
farmers by preventing them from getting onto their fields
earlier, it can also encourage snowfall and in the event of a
dry spring, farmers may welcome snow, Phillips explained.

“Typically, on the Prairies, 20 to 25 per cent of the
annual snowfall comes after the first day of spring when the
air masses are moister. That’s when you get these beautiful
snowfalls that last for two days. Then the sun comes out,
melting the snow into the topsoil and giving the moisture that
seeds need right away for germination.”

Looking ahead to the summer, Lerner believes the weather
outlook will improve. “We should see a good mix of sun, warmth
and rain and it might be a fairly decent summer.”

Lerner would not
rule out the possibility, however, of a wet bias continuing
into the summer months in the southeast sections of the
Prairie region.