Cordonnier stands pat on South American crop projections

MarketsFarm — At this point in the South American planting season it’s too early to get an accurate bead as to how much corn and soybeans will be grown in Brazil and Argentina, according to Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. at Hinsdale, Ill.

Cordonnier recently issued his latest estimates, keeping his call on 2022-23 corn and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina where they were. He pegged soybeans in Brazil at 150 million tonnes and 50 million for Argentina. As for corn, he also stayed at 50 million tonnes for Argentina, with 125 million for Brazil.

“Brazil had some rainfall [during the week of Nov. 6-12], mostly in the northeastern areas. There are also some dry pockets in central Brazil,” he said.

Reports on that country’s soybean planting placed it at 69 per cent complete, compared to 78 per cent the same time last year. Cordonnier said those dry pockets were just enough to slow progress in the fields.

“It’s still a generally good start for soybeans, but maybe not quite as good as it was a couple of weeks ago,” he added.

Cordonnier pointed to the difference in his soybean forecast versus the 153.5 million tonnes recently issued by CONAB, Brazil’s agrifood supply and statistics agency.

“That was exclusively due to a big increase in area planted,” he said, noting CONAB boosted its estimate by 350,000 hectares from its October call.

“They left the yield estimate unchanged for Brazil. But ironically in that same report they said La Nina is still out there and they are projecting a below normal rainfall regime for the next three months,” Cordonnier said.

While his prediction is 150 million tonnes of soybeans for Brazil, other consultancies have come in as low as 146 million tonnes while CONAB is on the high end.

“The people with the higher number are not expecting much of an impact from La Nina. People with the lower number [believe] there could be an impact and we will have to wait and see,” Cordonnier said.

As for Argentina, corn and soybean planting has been delayed due to dry conditions. That’s despite rains over the weekend of Nov. 12 to 13, with more precipitation to come before things turn dry again, he said.

The most current estimates placed the country’s corn planting at 23 per cent in the ground, inching up by only a half point over the week.

“About three-quarters of the corn in Argentina is going to be planted during the late phase, Cordonnier stated, noting that phase begins in early December.

Table: Recent South American corn and soybean production estimates, in millions of tonnes.