Durum prices fall as new crop right around corner

CNS Canada — Durum prices in Western Canada are under pressure as other countries’ new durum crops are just around the corner and end-users are well covered.

“We have new-crop French and Spanish durum coming on here in a couple months, and the Mexican crop as well,” said Jerry Klassen, manager for Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg.

Prairie old-crop values range from about $8.25-$9 a bushel across Western Canada, down about $1 from month-ago prices, Prairie Ag Hotwire data shows.

New-crop prices are hovering around $7/bu., which should be attracting some forward selling by farmers — but isn’t, Klassen said.

“I don’t think any farmers are selling, because last year they pre-sold and it was a bit early. This year, they probably should be selling more, but they’re not,” he added.

Offshore export demand is “dead,” and buyers are content to wait until the new crop comes off in other parts of the world, he added.

It won’t be long until the North American crop is seeded. “We’re going to see the North Dakota durum seeded here probably in a couple weeks,” Klassen said.

In Canada, seeding is still likely a bit further away, but acreage is expected to increase anywhere from 12 to 25 per cent compared to 2014, which is also bearish for prices.

Last year, durum area totaled 4.75 million acres, according to Statistics Canada, which will release its first 2015-16 planting projections on April 23.

Though the North American durum crop still has a whole growing season to go through, it looks as though it will be seeded in a favourable time frame because of the weather conditions seen so far this spring.

“It doesn’t look like there’s any reason for the market to rally here,” Klassen said.

— Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.