Feed weekly outlook: Record imports of U.S. corn likely

MarketsFarm — Canadian imports of corn from the United States are picking up and could hit a record this year, given the tight supply situation across the Prairies.

The most recent export sales data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed Canada as the country’s largest corn customer during the week ended Nov. 11, accounting for a quarter of the 903,400 tonnes of corn the U.S. sold during that reporting period.

The corn marketing year begins in September, with 1.2 million tonnes of sales to Canada already on the books less than three months into the year. That’s up by over 500 per cent from the 196,400 tonnes sold by the same time the previous year.

The large corn imports are primarily due to Canada’s own tight feed grain situation, with barley production down substantially on the year.

Canada’s livestock feeders will need to scale back how much barley they use, with “copious amounts” of U.S. corn filling in the feed deficit, Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro said on a webinar Thursday.

While corn imports will keep a lid on the barley market, prices in Western Canada are already at record-high levels. The domestic market is above the export market, which should limit offshore barley exports beyond what has already been put on the books, Jubinville said.

He forecast total Canadian barley exports in 2021-22 of about 1.5 million to 1.7 million tonnes, which would be well down from the 4.57 million tonnes of exports reported in 2020-21.

Meanwhile, he forecast corn imports from the U.S. in 2021-22 — into Western Canada alone — at 2.5 million to three million tonnes, which would be well above Canada’s total 2020-21 corn imports of 1.51 million tonnes.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.