Flax production lowest since 1967, StatCan predicts

MarketsFarm — After going into its least acres seeded since 1950, the 2023-24 Canadian flax crop is projected to be at its smallest in decades.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) reported in its principal field crop estimates on Thursday that 267,900 tonnes of flaxseed are expected to be produced in this year’s harvest. The total not only represents a 43.4 per cent drop from the previous year’s 434,175 tonnes, but it would also be Canada’s smallest flax crop since 1967 when 238,250 tonnes were produced. This year’s Canadian flax crop would also be the second-smallest since 1954.

For yield, 18 bushels per acre were produced on average, the second-smallest since 2005, only ahead of 13.7 bu./ac. in 2021.

Last February, StatCan had projected 500,000 tonnes for the 2023-24 crop, but hot and dry conditions on the Prairies and lower prices, due to a lack of competitiveness with Russia and Kazakhstan as well as other domestic oilseeds, limited production.

“Agronomically, a lot of producers are opting away from flax to grow crops that are easier to deal with, like canola, for example. Flax doesn’t yield as high and you still have to deal with (flax straw). It’s not attractive right now for producers to put the extra effort to grow,” said Cory Jacob, Saskatchewan’s provincial oilseed specialist.

Saskatchewan is slated to grow 81 per cent of Canada’s flax and 26 per cent of the province’s crop was combined as of Sept. 11, according to the weekly provincial crop report. Jacob said progress is being made on the flax harvest.

“Overall, harvest will be done earlier for the majority of producers. But a lot of producers don’t have the greatest crop they’ve ever seen. Some producers who did receive rain are a little better off for yield,” Jacob said, adding that yields were varied this year.

The high-delivered bid for Saskatchewan flax as of Thursday was $16 per bushel, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. While it is $1.50 higher than it was last week, it is still $7 less than one year ago.

“I can see prices coming back a little. As far as flax acres go for next year, I don’t know if we’ve found the bottom yet. That being said, I can’t see a really large uptick in the short-term here for acres. I think we’ll be near these record lows for acres,” Jacob said.

In order for flax prices to rise in the long-term, it needs to be more attractive for growers, he said — but it could be a hard sell.

“Producers know how to grow flax. It’s just putting that effort in or to take production away from other crops like canola or pulse crops or cereal crops,” Jacob said.

“There are better varieties coming, but it just doesn’t happen overnight, it takes a few years. Better varieties that are yielding a bit higher… But if we have higher yields, they may bring producers back to growing flax.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.