ICE canola weekly outlook: Possible support uncovered
Chicago soyoil has shown some stability, underpinning canola
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“Pods can look dramatically different, either riper or less ripe, than the actual seeds, so we need to be cracking open those pods and looking at the seeds.” Photo: Greg Berg
Glacier FarmMedia – The ICE Futures canola market hit fresh contract lows to start 2024 but may have finally uncovered some support.
“We seem to have found some degree of support… we’ve hit some swing targets in canola just above C$600 (per tonne)” said Ken Ball, of PI Financial in Winnipeg. He noted that while there were no significant supportive features in the market, short-covering ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand estimates on Jan. 12 could provide a nearby boost to the market.
Malaysian palm oil has moved up for five days in a row, while Chicago soyoil has also shown some stability, underpinning canola.
However, “with a big South American soybean crop coming… any bounce we see will likely be fairly routine,” said Ball.
He added that Canadian canola exports were running a million tonnes behind the year-ago pace, and the resulting likelihood of rising ending stocks would limit any upside potential. On the other side, Ball placed chart support around C$580 to C$600 per tonne.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
