ICE weekly outlook: Canola backs away from nearby highs

ICE November 2018 canola, with 20-day moving average. (Barchart)

CNS Canada — ICE canola futures hit their best levels in a month and a half earlier this week on the back of concerns over harvest delays, but ran into resistance and looked bearish once again by Wednesday.

While cold, wet conditions continued to cause harvest delays, as noted in the weekly provincial crop reports, there were pockets where farmers were getting some crop off.

“Some high-moisture canola is likely making its way into the elevator, which is bringing in some steady hedges,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

Weekly data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed “a lot of canola came up the driveway,” despite the delays, he said.

Fund traders who had been covering short positions earlier in October had also dropped away from the buy side and were back putting on short positions, according to Ferley.

The November canola contract made a brief move above the psychological $500 per tonne mark during the week, but settled Wednesday at $496.80 per tonne.

“The losses in soy complex are not helping at all,” Ferley added, pointing to recent declines in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil. He said a “major risk-off tone in the outside markets,” was also spilling into canola.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases updated production estimates on Thursday, and any surprises in its data could provide some short-term direction for canola.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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