Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

ICE weekly outlook: Canola correcting off lows

ice march canola
ICE Futures March 2020 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market fell sharply over the last half of January but have turned the corner during the first few trading days of February.

“I think we have room for some corrective gains,” MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville said of the recovery in canola.

The March contract hit a session low of $448.50 per tonne on Monday, but bounced higher by the close and continued higher in subsequent days to settle Wednesday at $461.70.

An overreaction to concerns over China’s novel coronavirus outbreak contributed to the declines and also to the eventual move higher, according to Jubinville.

“In the big picture, it changes nothing in the global demand for food,” he added, noting canola, soybeans and other commodities that were caught up in the sell-off now look like a bargain for end users.

“I think canola will continue to be supported as long as we see these corrections continue in the vegetable oil markets,” said Jubinville.

However, he added, the general demand environment out of China remains uncertain.

Looking at the bigger picture, he said, “throwing aside the dramatic run-up we had in December and the big pullback in January, it’s still a rangebound market — that hasn’t changed.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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