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ICE weekly outlook: Canola nearing resistance

MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts have trended higher over the past month, but may be nearing the upper end of their nearby range.

Solid demand, from both exporters and domestic crushers, has kept canola well supported, while a firmer tone in world energy and vegetable oil markets should also add some upside momentum, according to MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville.

While some overbought signals were starting to appear on the charts, “the trend is still there,” he added.

The July canola contract has moved above its 20- and 40- day moving averages, but is now testing the 100- day and 200-day averages.

Looking at a weekly chart, he placed resistance in the July contract at around $480 per tonne, and noted prices would have to move above that level to signal a sustained uptrend.

“I’m still optimistic that there may be some more room to be realized here, but I’ll respect this $470-$480 area as a potential selling opportunity.”

Jubinville said a fresh bullish catalyst would be needed to break above that resistance, with the market likely stalling out if that doesn’t materialize.

Weather through the growing season could be one such catalyst, as spring seeding moves along and attention turns to North American growing conditions.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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