Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

ICE weekly outlook: Canola trends lower as farmers sell, harvest

nov 18 canola
ICE November 2018 canola, with 20-day moving average. (Barchart)

CNS Canada — The ICE Futures canola market will bounce around in trade for the foreseeable future with the overall trend being downward, according to an analyst.

“We’re just going to continue to migrate lower. (There) are going to be up days because nothing goes down forever,” said Wayne Palmer, senior market analyst with Exceed Grain.

Over the last few days, the canola market has bounced back and forth, rallying one day to only go down the next, falling more on down days than it rises on the upswing.

Farmer selling and weather conditions have been driving the bouncing market.

“We’re going to go lower before we go higher,” he said. “It’s just a matter of farmers selling and if funds are going to put us down as well because they’re going to add to their short positions.”

The latest Canadian Grain Commission data, released Friday, showed strong canola deliveries from farmers, who delivered 584,100 tonnes of canola into commercial positions during the week ended Oct. 7 — up by about 100,000 tonnes from the previous week. The trend on deliveries has since continued.

“Farmers need to sell; the only reason they didn’t sell is because they still have a majority of the crop out in the field in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” Palmer said. “And it looks like until the end of October they’re going to be back out there.”

Cold and wet conditions over the last month stalled harvest progress in parts of the Prairies, but with drier weather over the last week and the forecast showing warmer temperatures, there has been news of farmers returning to the fields and optimism that harvest progress will be made in coming weeks.

Palmer doesn’t expect we’ll start to see another rally in the market, though, until at least the end of October or the start of November, due to the delayed harvest.

“It’s going to bounce around, migrate lower, net lower on the way down until the crop is off and the farmer has sold enough grain where he’s going to be cash sufficient until the New Year,” he said. “They are going to lock the bins and then we’re going to rally.”

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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