Prairie Forecast: Alberta low to bring bit of a cooldown

After a fairly active weather pattern over the last few days, at least across the eastern half of the Prairies, it looks like most regions will see much quieter few days to start off this forecast period. Weak upper-level ridging combine with a broad but weak area of surface high pressure should bring typical summer weather. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies right across the Prairies with temperatures running right around or slightly above seasonal averages. The odd late-afternoon thundershower can’t be ruled out, but no organized severe weather is expected.

Over the weekend the weather models show a piece of energy moving in off the Pacific. This will help to trigger the development of an area of low pressure over Alberta on Saturday. This low is forecasted to spin up quickly and become quite strong by Sunday or Monday. The current forecast track of this low moves it into northern Saskatchewan on Monday and then has it track eastward through far northern Manitoba on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Once this low pulls off to the east, the weather models show high pressure building across the Prairies by the middle of next week, bringing what looks to be near-perfect mid-summer weather.

Alberta

Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies to start off this forecast period with the chance of afternoon thundershowers, especially over central and northern regions. Daytime highs look to be warm as they climb toward the 27 to 30 C range with overnight lows falling to around 16 C. On Saturday the weather models show an area of low pressure developing over central regions, then moving rapidly northeastward on Sunday. This low will trigger a broad area of showers and possibly some stronger storms on both Saturday and Sunday, with most of the precipitation confined to the northern half of the province.

Once the low zips off to the northeast the counterclockwise rotation around the low will pull in cooler air from the north. Expect daytime highs to drop down to around the 20 C range by Sunday or Monday with overnight lows falling to around 10 C. These cool temperatures look to stick around until at least Wednesday before warming back up into the mid- to upper 20s. With weak high pressure building in, expect sunny starts to the day with skies becoming partly cloudy in the afternoons.

Saskatchewan

This region will see similar weather as Alberta. Expect a warm start to the forecast period with daytime highs in the upper 20s with overnight lows falling into the mid-teens. Skies will start off sunny, but as the Alberta low begins to get going on Saturday, expect increasing clouds along with the chance of showers and thundershowers/storms. Best chances for precipitation will be over the northern half of the province.

Just like in Alberta, once the low moves eastward on Monday, a cool northerly flow will develop and knock daytime highs down into the 20 to 23 C range to start the first week of July. As high pressure slowly settles in, expect plenty of sunshine with temperatures slowly warming as the week progresses.

Manitoba

After an unsettled couple of days, the upper low responsible for the severe weather will finally slide off to the east. Expect skies to clear from west to east, with temperatures cooling down to around 23 C for highs. Friday and Saturday look to be nice, with plenty of sunshine along with warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the 27 C range with overnight lows falling into the upper teens. By Sunday, Manitoba will begin to feel the effects of the Alberta low as it moves into Saskatchewan. Confidence in this part of the forecast is not high, but there is a chance of some showers and thundershowers developing late Saturday and into Sunday right across the province with more northern regions seeing the best chance of precipitation.

To start of the first week of July, high pressure will begin to build in as the Alberta low exits the province. Much like Alberta and Saskatchewan, expect a cool but comfortable start to the week with highs in the low 20s. As the high builds in over the week, temperatures will slowly warm back towards the mid- to upper 20s. There is a chance for southern regions to see some thundershowers next Tuesday or Wednesday but confidence in this is low, so watch for the update.

— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.