Prairie forecast: All aboard the temperature rollercoaster

Forecast issued Feb. 25, coving Feb. 25 to March 4, 2026

Highlights

• A series of lows, and the cold and warm air masses that come with them, will make for a temperature rollercoaster on the Prairies.
• Alberta temperatures will drop towards the weekend with chances of snow in some areas before temperatures begin to warm again early next week.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect mild temperatures before cold air briefly moves in over the weekend.

Forecast

Last week’s forecast unfolded largely as the weather models suggested. They correctly indicated an area of low pressure crossing the Prairies early this week. While the exact track of the system differed slightly from earlier projections, overall snowfall totals were close to what had been anticipated.

For this forecast period, we begin with one area of low pressure over Ontario and a second low developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Between these two systems, a weak ridge of Arctic high pressure is sliding southeast through Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Models show the Gulf of Alaska system strengthening and spinning off a couple of additional lows over the next week. These lows are forecast to move into the southern Yukon or northern Alberta before tracking southeast toward northwestern Ontario.

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As these systems develop and move southeast, they will draw milder air northward ahead of them. Behind each low, colder Arctic air will surge south again. This setup points to a temperature rollercoaster, with warm and cold air masses taking turns across the region. Precipitation will generally be confined to areas along and north of each system’s track.

The first low is expected to form over northern Alberta on Wednesday and quickly track toward southern Manitoba by Thursday. At this point, it appears relatively weak and set to bring mainly light flurries.

A second, somewhat stronger low is forecast to move into northern Alberta on Thursday and track toward northwestern Ontario by Friday. Snowfall with this system is expected to be in the 5 to 10 cm range, primarily across northern Alberta, north-central Saskatchewan, and Manitoba’s northern Interlake region.

Colder air will push south behind this second system, bringing a return to below-average temperatures for the weekend. However, the cold spell looks brief. A third low is forecast to develop over northern Alberta on Monday, which will once again force Arctic air northward. This system is expected to follow a similar track, bringing another shift back toward cooler conditions around midweek.

Looking further ahead, there are no strong signals in the models suggesting a sustained push of mild spring air. Instead, guidance points toward a generally cool and somewhat unsettled pattern developing. As always, spring is one of the most volatile times of the year, so adjustments to the forecast are likely.

Alberta

A weak area of low pressure will bring cloudy to partly cloudy skies to northern Alberta on Wednesday, along with some light snow. This system will quickly move east, only to be followed by a second low Thursday into early Friday. The second system appears somewhat stronger and should bring accumulating snow to northern regions.

Temperatures across northern Alberta will hover near -5 C on Wednesday and Thursday before dropping sharply Friday as a cold front pushes south behind the low.

Across southern Alberta, Wednesday and Thursday will feature sunny skies and mild temperatures, with daytime highs ranging from 5 to 10 C. Temperatures will fall Friday as the cold front advances southward. There is also the potential for some snow across southwestern regions, which will need monitoring.

The weekend will bring partly cloudy skies and colder temperatures, especially on Saturday. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are forecast near -8 C, with central and northern regions seeing highs between -12 and -15 C.

As a third low begins to organize Sunday into Monday, milder air will once again push northward. Daytime highs should moderate to above-freezing values by Monday. This system may bring clouds and light snow to northern areas on Monday, followed by another push of cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday as the low exits to the east.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

After a brief shot of cold air earlier this week, temperatures are expected to rebound quickly. Daytime highs across Saskatchewan should climb to near or above freezing on Wednesday, with Manitoba following on Thursday. A weak low accompanying the milder air will bring cloudy to partly cloudy skies and the chance of flurries.

A second low is forecast to track across north-central Saskatchewan into the northern Interlake region of Manitoba on Friday. Snowfall amounts of around 5 cm are possible, with most accumulation mostly staying north of the main agricultural areas.

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Once this system moves into northwestern Ontario, Arctic high pressure will slide south on Saturday. Daytime highs are expected to fall into the -15 C range, with overnight lows near -25 C.

Temperatures will begin moderating across Saskatchewan on Sunday as the Arctic high shifts east and a third low develops over northern Alberta. Daytime highs should approach the freezing mark across Saskatchewan on Sunday and Manitoba on Monday.

This third system is expected to follow a similar track through north-central regions on Tuesday. At this time, there does not appear to be a strong surge of Arctic air behind it, meaning daytime highs should remain close to the freezing point.